:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2025 May 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 125 Issued at 2200Z on 05 May 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 May, 07 May,
08 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 889 km/s at 05/2054Z. Total IMF
reached 9 nT at 04/2109Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-7 nT at 05/0340Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 16254 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (06 May), quiet to
active levels on day two (07 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (08 May).

III.  Event probabilities 06 May-08 May
Class M    45/45/45
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 May 159
Predicted   06 May-08 May 160/160/160
90 Day Mean        05 May 167

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 May  017/ 29
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 May  021/030
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 May-08 May  018/021-012/015-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 May-08 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/35/30
Minor Storm           30/15/05
Major-severe storm    10/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/10/15
Minor Storm           20/25/30
Major-severe storm    65/50/35